The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh

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The link between climate change, food security and fertility : The case of Bangladesh. / Chen, Mengni; Atiqul Haq, Shah Md; Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor; Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth; Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar.

In: PLoS ONE, Vol. 16, No. 10, 0258196, 2021.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Chen, M, Atiqul Haq, SM, Ahmed, KJ, Hussain, AHMB & Ahmed, MNQ 2021, 'The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh', PLoS ONE, vol. 16, no. 10, 0258196. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196

APA

Chen, M., Atiqul Haq, S. M., Ahmed, K. J., Hussain, A. H. M. B., & Ahmed, M. N. Q. (2021). The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh. PLoS ONE, 16(10), [0258196]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196

Vancouver

Chen M, Atiqul Haq SM, Ahmed KJ, Hussain AHMB, Ahmed MNQ. The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh. PLoS ONE. 2021;16(10). 0258196. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196

Author

Chen, Mengni ; Atiqul Haq, Shah Md ; Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor ; Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth ; Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar. / The link between climate change, food security and fertility : The case of Bangladesh. In: PLoS ONE. 2021 ; Vol. 16, No. 10.

Bibtex

@article{c39b7d2aa7384881b2821b18916a38cf,
title = "The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh",
abstract = "Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect-via crop production-on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect-via infant mortality-on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.",
keywords = "ADAPTATION STRATEGIES, RAINFALL VARIABILITY, POPULATION TRENDS, CHILD-MORTALITY, RICE YIELD, IMPACT, PRECIPITATION, FAMINE, TEMPERATURE, SEASONALITY",
author = "Mengni Chen and {Atiqul Haq}, {Shah Md} and Ahmed, {Khandaker Jafor} and Hussain, {A. H. M. Belayeth} and Ahmed, {Mufti Nadimul Quamar}",
year = "2021",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0258196",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
journal = "PLoS ONE",
issn = "1932-6203",
publisher = "Public Library of Science",
number = "10",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The link between climate change, food security and fertility

T2 - The case of Bangladesh

AU - Chen, Mengni

AU - Atiqul Haq, Shah Md

AU - Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor

AU - Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth

AU - Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect-via crop production-on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect-via infant mortality-on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.

AB - Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect-via crop production-on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect-via infant mortality-on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.

KW - ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

KW - RAINFALL VARIABILITY

KW - POPULATION TRENDS

KW - CHILD-MORTALITY

KW - RICE YIELD

KW - IMPACT

KW - PRECIPITATION

KW - FAMINE

KW - TEMPERATURE

KW - SEASONALITY

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0258196

DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0258196

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34673797

VL - 16

JO - PLoS ONE

JF - PLoS ONE

SN - 1932-6203

IS - 10

M1 - 0258196

ER -

ID: 291217665